Soybean futures off to races on China demand, Brazil woes

Recap for November 13

• Soybean futures soared Monday as China continued last week’s string of soybean purchases and on weather-model forecasts that the northern two-thirds of Brazil will experience temperatures near 100 degrees in the coming days, threatening the crop in the world’s top exporting country. Corn futures rallied off last week’s nearly-three-year low on technical trading and with support from an export sale to Mexico. Wheat futures edged higher, except for the spot Minneapolis contract, on expectations winter wheat conditions would be steady after the crop’s best start in years. Dry conditions remain a worry in the southern Plains, and the USDA’s Crop Progress report issued after the market closed indicated conditions worsened in several hard red winter states, but mostly improved in the soft red wheat Central states as of Nov. 12. December corn futures added 13¼¢ to close at $4.77¼ per bu. Chicago December wheat added 3¾¢ to close at $5.79 per bu. Kansas City December wheat gained 1½¢ to close at $6.41½ per bu. Minneapolis December wheat pulled back 1¾¢ to close at $7.28¾ per bu, but subsequent contracts were mostly higher in a 2¢ a bu range. January soybeans soared 35¢ to close at $13.82½ per bu. December soybean meal added $19.70 to close at $469.10 per ton. December soybean oil rose 0.34¢ to close at 51.54¢ a lb.

• US equity indexes posted mixed closes Monday. Among the majors, only the Dow industrials posted an increase on the back of rising Boeing shares after that company received a large order for jets. The wider market tracked bond market movement where at one point the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note reached as high as 4.696%, up from roughly 4.5% less than a week ago, before eventually settling at 4.631%, compared with 4.627% Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 54.77 points, or 0.16%, to close at 34,337.87. The Standard & Poor’s 500 eased 3.69 points, or 0.08%, to close at 4,411.55. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 30.36 points, or 0.22%, to close at 13,767.74.

• US crude oil prices rose again Monday. The December West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future closed $1.09 higher at $78.26 per barrel. 

• The US dollar index opened the week with a second straight loss after a four-day rally last week. 

• US gold futures rose as the dollar faltered. The December contract ascended $12.50 to close at $1,950.20 per oz.

Recap for November 10

• Corn futures declined to near three-year lows Friday and posted a third straight weekly loss a day after the USDA raised its estimate for the US 2023-24 corn crop to a record 15.234 billion bus from 15.064 billion in October. Wheat futures followed corn lower as traders digested Thursday reports seen as bearish for wheat. Technical buying sent soybean futures mostly higher. December corn futures dropped 4¢ to close at $4.64 per bu. Chicago December wheat fell 5½¢ to close at $5.75¼ per bu. Kansas City December wheat dropped 7¼¢ to close at $6.40 per bu. Minneapolis December wheat pulled back 4¢ to close at $7.30½ per bu. November soybeans added 5¾¢ to close at $13.33½ per bu. December soybean meal dropped 50¢ to close at $449.40 per ton. December soybean oil rose 0.75¢ to close at 51.20¢ a lb.

• On the heels of Thursday’s declines, US stock indexes pulled higher Friday, the Nasdaq posting its best day in more than five months and the S&P 500’s 11 sectors all closing higher. All three posted weekly gains. Also, the bond market stabilized with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settling at 4.627%, from 4.629% the day prior. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 391.16 points, or 1.15%, to close at 34,283.10. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 67.89 points, or 1.56%, to close at 4,415.24. The Nasdaq Composite added 276.66 points, or 2.05%, to close at 13,798.11.

• US crude oil prices rose again Friday. The December West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future closed $1.43 higher at $77.17. 

• The US dollar index closed the week with a loss after a four-day rally. 

• US gold futures reverted to the low side Friday. The December contract tumbled $32.10 to close at $1,937.70 per oz.

Recap for November 9

• Corn futures declined Thursday after the US Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the US 2023 corn crop to a record-high 15,234 million bus, up from 15,064 million in October based on an average yield at 174.9 bus per acre. Soybean futures dropped sharply after the USDA in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report raised its forecast for US soybean carryover in 2024 to 245 million bus. The government estimated the soybean crop at 4,129 million bus, up from 4,104 million in October, based on an average yield of 49.9 bus per acre. Wheat futures extended losses as the US dollar strengthened and the WASDE indicated larger global supplies, decreased domestic use and higher ending stocks. December corn futures fell 8¢ to close at $4.68 per bu. Chicago December wheat fell 11½¢ to close at $5.80¾ per bu. Kansas City December wheat dropped 7¾¢ to close at $6.47¼ per bu. Minneapolis December wheat fell 1¢ to close at $7.34½ per bu. November soybeans fell 21¼¢ to close at $13.27¾ per bu. December soybean meal edged up 10¢ to close at $449.90 per ton, but all subsequent futures were lower by about $3 to $5 a ton. December soybean oil rose 0.50¢ to close at 50.45¢ a lb.

• The stock market wavered between gains and losses Thursday but closed lower after a government sale of $24 billion in long-term debt drew fewer buyers than anticipated, spurring benchmark 10-year yields, which offer practically risk-free returns, to tick higher to 4.629%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 220.33 points, or 0.65%, to close at 33,891.94. The Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 35.43 points, or 0.81%, to close at 4,347.35. The Nasdaq Composite fell 128.97 points, or 0.94%, to close at 13,521.45.

• US crude oil prices rose Thursday. The December West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future closed 41¢ higher at $75.74. 

• The US dollar index strengthened Thursday for a fourth consecutive day. 

• US gold futures broke a multi-day downturn with a higher close Thursday. The December contract added $12 to close at $1,969.80 per oz.

Recap for November 8 

• US wheat futures rallied Wednesday on signs of global demand after Algeria’s purchase, renewed Black Sea supply concerns after a Russian missile allegedly damaged a Liberian civilian vessel near the Odesa port, and a reduction in the estimate of Argentina’s wheat harvest from 14.3 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes. US soybean futures continued to rally off of 22-month lows reached the prior month, soaring Wednesday to a two-month high after the US Department of Agriculture confirmed large private sales of US soybeans, including 433,000 tonnes to China and 476,500 tonnes to unknown destinations. Corn, with a boost from a 270,000-tonne export sale to Mexico for 2023-24, followed wheat and soybean higher as traders positioned themselves ahead of Thursday’s fresh supply-demand numbers. December corn futures were up 7½¢ at $4.76 per bu. Chicago December wheat jumped 22¢ to close at $5.92¼ per bu. Kansas City December wheat soared 22½¢ to close at $6.55 per bu. Minneapolis December wheat added 11¼¢ to close at $7.35½ per bu. November soybeans edged up ¼¢ to close at $13.49 per bu; September 2024 futures and beyond were steady to lower. December soybean meal added $2.40 to close at $449.80 per ton; March 2024 and beyond were lower. December soybean oil ascended 0.46¢ to close at 49.95¢ a lb.

• Fresh third-quarter earnings reports buoyed some shares and sent others lower on Wednesday, leading to mixed closes on the nation’s major equity indices. The Nasdaq was higher for a ninth consecutive day, the S&P500 for an eighth in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 40.33 points, or 0.12%, to close at 34,112.27. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 4.4 points, or 0.1%, to close at 4,382.78. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 10.56 points, or 0.08%, to close at 13,650.41.

• US crude oil prices fell Wednesday. The December West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future was down $2.04 to close at $75.33. 

• The US dollar index strengthened for a third straight session on Wednesday. 

• US gold futures kept to the downside Wednesday as the dollar continued to accelerate. The December contract dropped $15.70 to close at $1,957.80 per oz.

Recap for November 7

• Better-than-expected winter wheat crop conditions — about 50% of the US crop was in good-to-excellent condition on Nov. 5 — pressured wheat futures Tuesday, with KC hard red winter futures leading the way down. Nearby soybeans rose to a two-month high on adverse weather conditions in export competitor Brazil, but deferred months declined. Corn futures dropped as traders awaited updated supply-demand estimates Thursday amid expectations of slightly increased US corn production and yield estimates. December corn futures were down 8¾¢ at $4.68½ per bu. Chicago December wheat dropped 5½¢ to close at $5.70¼ per bu. Kansas City December wheat fell 13¼¢ to close at $6.32½ per bu. Minneapolis December wheat fell 4½¢ to close at $7.24¼ per bu. November soybeans rose 8¼¢ to close at $13.48¾ per bu; all subsequent months were lower. December soybean meal added $9.90 to close at $447.40 per ton; December soybean oil shed 1.31¢ to close at 49.49¢ a lb.

• As Treasurys continued to rally — the yield on 10-year notes fell to 4.57% from 5% last month — tech stocks behind the earlier 2023 rally resumed their climb, helping the major indexes move higher Tuesday, the Nasdaq for the eighth straight trading day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 56.74 points, or 0.17%, to close at 34,152.60. The Standard & Poor’s 500 edged up 12.4 points, or 0.28%, to close at 4,378.38. The Nasdaq Composite added 121.08 points, or 0.9%, to close at 13,639.86.

• US crude oil prices fell Tuesday. The December West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future was down $3.45 to close at $77.37. 

• The US dollar index strengthened again Tuesday after touching a six-week low near the end of the previous week. 

• US gold futures pulled lower as the dollar maintained an upside surge. The December contract was down $15.10 to close at $1,973.50 per oz.